Mortgage rates were effectively unchanged today, putting an end to 2 days spent moving higher as the threat of violence diminished in Ukraine. Indeed it was violence in Ukraine (or rather, a Ukrainian Military Installation in Crimea) that enabled bond markets to improve today, thus preventing rates from rising further. Some lenders increased costs just slightly while an equal amount went the other direction. In both cases, today's latest rate sheets aren't that far off from yesterday's, though that wouldn't have been the case with this morning's rate sheets as many lenders improved mid-day to reach the 'unchanged' levels. The most prevalently quoted conforming 30yr Fixed for the best-qualified borrowers remains at 4.5% for some lenders, though at least as many are still offering 4.375%.
The balancing act between Ukraine and more normal sources of market movement continues to cause volatility for markets in general. The effects on mortgage rates have been better-enabled by the relative absence of significant domestic economic data. Complicating matters further, the only time that geopolitical risk wasn't having an obvious effect on rates, just happened to coincide with the only recent significant data earlier this month with the Employment report on March 7th.
That employment data made for a convincing head-fake toward higher rates and renewed geopolitical risk brought rates back down in the following week. The point is that significant domestic data hasn't really had to compete with geopolitical risk for the same stage. They've been taking turns, as it were.
The first good chance for this to change arrives tomorrow. There's no way to be sure it WILL change, but tomorrow's Fed policy announcement always has the potential to move markets, and it comes one day after news of gunfire and wounded Ukrainian military at an army base in Crimea. It's hard to imagine Ukraine-related headlines will simply take the day off tomorrow. The Fed certainly won't.
Mortgage Rates Sideways Ahead of Fed Announcement